Nate Hallowell’s

ComScore recently released a study stating that the number of clicks fell 12% for Google over the last 3 months and 4.6% over at Yahoo (BusinessWeek). On the same day that the study was released, GOOG dropped 4.6%. Are traders forecasting the beginning of the end for Google and other search engine marketing? Web market analysis is still a fairly new game. I question whether translating the same analysis methods that are used for other forms of marketing to the Internet is the best idea or not. This raw comScore data reported the number of paid keyword clicks for certain engines. In an example of a relevant click here – Charlie searches for term “oatmeal” (lets say Quaker had negotiated number 1 spot from Google Adwords) and clicks on Quaker’s purchased ad. A click on an unpaid ad wouldn’t have been reported to comScore, so a drop in paid keyword clicking could mean a few things. First, maybe the advertisers are getting smarter and learning new methods for ranking higher on search query result pages. Maybe Internet users are also responding negatively to search pages over saturated with advertising. Google, after all did begin its business with a core policy to keep the website free of advertising. It could also be the result of new methods of eliminating fraudulent clicking – where click-through rates are inflated in various methods, many of which may be automated “spiders”. After much dispute between advertisers and SEM vendors over what percentage of clicks are actually relevant and interested users, SEM vendors have been forced to find new solutions to the click fraud problem. One vendor, Zunch Communications, has released a tool that will allow their advertisers to investigate fraudulent clicks (IMedia) called”Click Fraud Detective”. With all this new action in the search marketplace, a move towards getting the most effective ROI is surely evident.